The Black Swan
The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty<BR><BR>What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? <BR><BR>This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. <BR><BR>'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday<BR><BR>'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
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