How to Expect the Unexpected

"This is an exquisitely interesting book. It's a deeply serious one too and, for those like me who have little maths, it's delightfully readable" - IAN MCEWAN<BR><BR>"Kit Yates is a natural storyteller. Through fascinating stories and examples, he shows how maths is the beating heart of so much of modern life. An exciting new voice in the world of science communication" - MARCUS DU SAUTOY<BR><BR>"Used wisely, mathematics can save your life. Used unwisely, it can ruin it. A lucid and enthralling account of why maths matters in everyone's life. A real eye-opener." - Prof Ian Stewart FRS, author of Do Dice Play God?<BR>__________<BR><BR>Maths is the story of the world around us, and the wisdom it gives us can be the difference between success and disaster.<BR><BR>We are all doing maths all the time, from the way we communicate with each other to the way we travel, from how we work to how we relax. Many of us are aware of this. But few of us really appreciate the full power of maths - the extent to which its influence is not only in every office and every home, but also in every courtroom and hospital ward.<BR><BR>In this eye-opening and extraordinary book, Yates explores the true stories of life-changing events in which the application - or misapplication - of mathematics has played a critical role: patients crippled by faulty genes and entrepreneurs bankrupted by faulty algorithms; innocent victims of miscarriages of justice and the unwitting victims of software glitches. We follow stories of investors who have lost fortunes and parents who have lost children, all because of mathematical misunderstandings.<BR><BR>Along the way, Yates arms us with simple mathematical rules and tools that can help us make better decisions in our increasingly quantitative society. You will discover why it's always sensible to question a statistic, often vital to ask for a second opinion and sometimes surprisingly handy to stick to the 37% rule...

'A profound, intriguing, and important book that reveals as much about human nature as the remarkable power of the brain. Every insight comes to life through real-world examples of the potential and the pitfalls of the hidden patterns all around us. I loved it.' Susie Dent'I was amazed, reading this, how much we overlook the gaps around us... Made me look around my own life and wonder "What have I missed?"' Jeremy Vine'A wide-ranging and engaging guide not only to our blind spots, but to our blind spots about our blind spots. Delightful!' Tim Harford, author of How To Make The World Add UpWe all like to think we're making decisions based on reality, but in fact, we're almost always working from incomplete information. And when 'you don't know what you don't know', it can be impossible to navigate successfully.In You Don't Know What You're Missing mathematician Kit Yates explores the blind spots, gaps in our knowledge and how we make sense of the world given we usually have an unfinished picture. From avoiding common traps and pitfalls to filling in the gaps without guessing, it shows us how to turn our misses into hits.

Spannend und einfach erklärt: Mathe in unserem Alltag¿ Wie Mathematik unseren Leben bestimmt - und wie man sich das Zahlenwissen zunutze machen kann.¿¿ Stehen Sie auch immer in der langsamsten Warteschlange im Supermarkt? Und suchen Sie regelmäßig nach dem perfekten Platz im Zug? Dieses Buch wird Ihnen dabei helfen, Ihren Alltag besser zu verstehen - mit Mathematik! ¿"Warum Mathematik (fast) alles ist", erklärt der promovierte Mathematiker Kit Yates in diesem Buch und zeigt, welche mathematischen Prinzipien hinter vielen Alltagsphänomenen stecken. Er präsentiert mathematische Rätsel aus Geschichte und Medien und beschreibt ebenso unterhaltsam wie eindrücklich, wie das Spiel mit den Zahlen hinter fast allen kleinen und großen Ereignissen steckt - vom Supermarktbesuch bis zur Atombombe.¿¿ Wer erkennt, welche Rolle Mathematik in unserem täglichen Leben spielt, wird bessere Entscheidungen treffen. In seinem neuen Buch beweist Kit Yates: Mathematisches Denken ist nicht nur nützlich und macht Spaß - manchmal rettet es auch Leben.¿¿ Spannend bis zum Schluss: Populärwissenschaft als packender Krimi!¿¿ Vom Medizinskandal bis zur Statistikverzerrung vor Gericht: Kit Yates deckt auf, wie die Mathematik nahezu alle Bereiche unseres Lebens durchdringt und beherrscht - ganz ohne komplizierte Formeln. Nie war Mathe so spannend!¿¿ Corona als Rechenaufgabe: die Pandemie verstehen mit Mathematik¿ Kit Yates widmet auch der Epidemiologie einen Teil seines Buches und erklärt: Zahlen können helfen, die Corona-Pandemie zu verstehen - aber auch zu verschleiern. So ist "Warum Mathematik (fast) alles ist" auch ein eindringliches Plädoyer dafür, Zahlen nicht blind zu vertrauen, sondern zu lernen, sie selbst zu interpretieren.¿¿ 'Kit Yates zeigt, wie unser privates und gesellschaftliches Leben von Mathematik durchdrungen ist. Unwissenheit kann in Tragödien enden. Darum ist dies ein überaus interessantes Buch. Und für diejenigen, die wie ich wenig mit Mathe zu tun haben, ist es wunderbar verständlich.' Ian McEwan

A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023<BR><BR>'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip Pullman<BR><BR>'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien<BR><BR>'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People<BR><BR>· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?<BR>· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?<BR>· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?<BR>· How do you prevent a nuclear war?<BR><BR>Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).<BR><BR><BR> For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.<BR><BR>How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.